The Velluvial Matix by Gawande...Complexity

I was reading Atul Gawande's article "The Velluvial Matrix" in The New Yorker... Complexity showed up...again...

As always he made some excellent observations and suggests that complexity is at the heart of the problem.

"... This is a deeper, more fundamental problem than we acknowledge. The truth is that the volume and complexity of the knowledge that we need to master has grown exponentially beyond our capacity as individuals......We’re talking about a problem rooted in scientific complexity....."

He suggests that the complexity is a result of knowledge explosion especially in science and technology but that's not the only source of complexity. Complexity also stems from the uncertainty. Let me explain this by using Gawande's example. He mentioned that there are more than 13600 diagnoses and its too much for the human mind. If there were 13600 well understood diagnoses with clear and independent symptoms then the problem would have been tractable. Granted that it would still be beyond one mind's capacity. But with the advanced technology one does not need to know/remember everything. Tools like WebMD can be used to supplement the human intelligence in better and faster decision making.

I think its not only the numbers but also the associated uncertainty in the process of diagnosis. Diagnosis is like a tricky puzzle with missing pieces. Many a times doctors do not have enough information to make proper diagnosis. This makes the decision making a difficult process and dent the confidence of a doctor. This uncertainty is a big part of the problem as it compels the doctors to recommend lot more tests to be on safer side and there by costing both time and money and making entire system more costly.